This post was featured as an article on ConservativeHome in June 2022.
“I used to vote Conservative, but I can’t do it anymore,” a resident explained, his voice filled with exasperation.
He was in his late 30s, renting a flat with his wife and two children in London, and aspiring to own a home in the Home Counties soon.
He was a ‘demographic’ Conservative – someone we’d think would vote for us. But in 2022, he’d had enough.
“The party is unconcerned with helping people like me. So I’m voting for someone else,” he finished. No discussion of local issues could bring him back. He had made up his mind.
The way it used to be
I was talking to this voter during the May local election campaign, where last month as a Conservative council candidate I lost to Labour by just 9 votes.
Before me, my ward had reliably returned 3 Conservative councillors for 30 years. But demographics have begun to come up against us. We must act now to ensure the trend does not continue.
In 1950, the young vote really mattered. 19% more of the population was under 50 than over. In the active electorate, there were around 30-40% more voters under 50 than over.
Since then, demography changed. Today, just 3% more of the population is under 50 than over. Looking at turnout, there are now around 15% fewer voters under 50 than over.
As this change took place, policy recalibrated to address the needs of the older voter.
This was justified, and materially improved the lives of older people in need of help. But are we now at risk of going too far, in turn neglecting the needs of the young and working population?
How the young feel
It’s well established that as people get wealthier, own a home and have a family, they tend towards voting Conservative.
But the number of people struggling to do this is growing. If it continues, it puts the long term Conservative vote at risk. People only vote Conservative with age if economic circumstances improve with age, after all.
Fortunately, we can do much to address the concerns of the young and working population by focusing on three key areas: housing, childcare and student loans. It is key we do it soon.
Housing
Since the 1990s, home ownership has halved in the 24-35 year old age group. This has resulted in 4m people being unable to afford their first home, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies.
Consequently, we have a record number of 20-34 year olds living at home – over 28% in 2021 versus 24% in 2011.
Affordability has reached breaking point. Since 1970, average house prices have risen 65 fold, but average wages have risen only 36 fold, according to the ONS.
In 2022, the average house price is £267,620 and the average deposit £61,100, but the average UK annual salary is £31,772.
Home ownership is a leading indicator for voting Conservative. But all these metrics add up to population owning fewer homes, in turn threatening demographic trends that have served us well to date.
Childcare
Alongside home ownership, having a child has become eye-wateringly expensive.
In 2021, sending a two-year-old to nursery for 50 hours per week cost an average of £13,700 per year. This rose an inflation-busting 5.2% from 2020. A working couple on the median UK wage must now spend over 20% of their pre-tax income on childcare each year – per child. In London, the cost is worse: £19,000 a year, up 60% in cash terms from 2010 to 2021.
It is therefore unsurprising that the young are delaying having children. The UK’s birth rate has declined to 1.6 babies per mother in 2021 from 1.93 in 2012 (and the UK’s replacement rate is 2.08). For the first time ever last year, half of women in England and Wales remained childless at their 30th birthday.
If this trend continues, there will be simply be fewer children in decades to come. Fewer children means fewer working age adults, exacerbating pressure on public services and slowing economic growth.
Student loans
Finally, added to home ownership and childcare, is student loans.
Under New Labour, generations of young people were wrongly told that university was a panacea.
Higher education has vastly varied outcomes, depending on institution attended and course studied. Unlucky graduates earn less than contemporaries with technical qualifications.
Acknowledging this, the Conservatives have strengthened routes to technical qualifications over the past decade. But we must go further.
Student debt is significant and current interest rates reduce the ability of graduates to pay back loans. Over time, loans suppress graduate pay, compounding issues of home ownership and childcare affordability.
The loans also store up losses for future governments. A significant amount will be left unpaid. Treasury estimates that outstanding loans will reach £560bn in value (at 2019-20 prices) by 2050. Is this model sustainable?
A new deal for the young
Taken together, these three issues occupy significant space in the mind of the working electorate. Addressed wrongly, they are a recipe for a population that doesn’t vote Conservative as it ages.
To solve this, we must seize the initiative. The young are looking for a party that will solve these issues. It would be unnatural for a new generation to see Labour, of all parties, as the party of home ownership and aspiration. We are the natural party for this.
We must build homes boldly, supporting planning law reforms originally proposed by the Government. New homes are a key long-term priority for our party’s success, and no quick demand-side policy can fix this. Alongside homes, we must invest more in infrastructure, so the country and these new homes can fuel tomorrow’s growth.
We must reduce the cost of childcare. The cost of full, 50-hour, work-week childcare should be means-tested and, if appropriate, fully state subsidised. Existing subsidy schemes must be made less obscure, so parents know exactly what help exists. Doing this has the collateral benefit of maximising female participation in the workforce.
For university funding, we must innovate. A promising solution is the use of income-sharing agreements, like those offered by innovative fintech StepEx (which recently rolled out its funding structure with the University of Buckingham). ISA structures incentivise high quality, value-adding higher education courses and reduce low quality ones. This is just one creative solution to the problem in front of us.
Alongside fixing these issues, we must support a wider set of economic policies that are not perceived as wealth transfer from young to old. The older population use the NHS and social care system more, so we must finds ways for the whole population to pay for it. Perhaps an increase in the adult social care precept, given it is shared across the population.
We must also consider bolder measures for balancing cost, such as means testing state retirement benefits like free NHS prescriptions, bus passes and the winter fuel allowance. We must advocate policies that bring the entire population together to share the burden of the future, while supporting the most vulnerable.
It’s not zero sum
Over the last 25 years, there has been much focus on older voters, who have needed our support. But not enough focus has been kept on the working population, where an increasing number are now struggling to make the progress they were expecting.
It doesn’t need to be like this. Bold action now can grow the number of Conservative voters in the future. We must remain the natural home for the aspirational and we must think about the UK’s next generation.
If we do not, it is both unfair to the young today and dangerous to the electoral success of the Conservatives tomorrow. We are the natural party to solve these problems. Let’s get on and do it.
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